This may not be an exact quote from the King James Bible but it could well become increasingly appropriate advice for those investors who have come to believe, whether out of cynicism or naivety, that the various central banks both can and will 'see them right'.  The People's Bank of China still appears the most obliging as it is under political orders to ease monetary policy and provide bail-outs wherever needed. In the US,  while the FOMC does seem to have abandoned altogether renewing the notorious Greenspan and Bernanke 'puts' for investors it remains collectively ambiguous as to when the first interest rate hikes will start. The Bank of England has been much more restrained in deed but in word has indulged in occasional kite-flying about raising Base Rates and, most recently, in cutting them. In contrast, the ECB and Bank of Japan are still 'gung ho' on QE, ZIRP/NIRP and competitive currency devaluation

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Last week collywobbles in most equity markets further confirmed that some investors are losing confidence both in the global economy and the ability of central banks to do much about it. In fact, US markets have been flashing hot and cold for much of the last six months in response to FOMC ambiguity while those in Europe and Japan have been either awaiting or responding to ECB and BoJ QE programmes. Since Mr Draghi fired his starting gun investment flows have been complex with some US investors eager to exploit ECB as well as BoJ largesse while some European and Japanese investors have taken the opportunity to pile into the US. Mr Draghi, presumably deliberately, has set off a feeding frenzy for European sovereign bonds and shorting the euro in favour of the dollar.

Around the world, commentators with varying degrees of shrillness are ramping up talk of asset prices bubbles and surely there will soon be more frequent alarms over Ponzi schemes and Minsky moments. Market movements and economic fundamentals rarely coincide but it is worth saying that the latter are definitely not encouraging. Whatever monetary policy has been credited with in the past it appears now not to be doing much for global demand. Accordingly, putting trust in central banks is asking too much of them. Moreover, at the risk of ending with a banality, it should be noted that the 'sell in May' season is already upon us.

China disconnection

Almost all the main data for April has now been published and it has further highlighted both the slowdown in growth and the disconnection between the economy and the 'klondike' in China's equity markets.  President Xi and Premier Li have taken the lead spinning role in managing down growth expectations while reassuring that all is under control. The official GDP target is now 'around 7% per annum', which the Q1 data (published as usual with lightning speed) somehow managed to match year on year but, at a mere 1.3% higher than the previous quarter, bodes ill for 2015 as a whole. Sliding Exports and Industrial Production together with softer Imports and Retail Sales are all pointing to a slowdown that extends far beyond China itself. Meanwhile, domestic equities have carried on surging: the Shanghai Composite was up another 6.3% last week to record gains so far of 14.4% in April, 32.5% in 2015 and 111% over the last 12 months.  Cynics have suggested that the new punting craze is a direct result of restrictions on travel to Macau, Las Vegas and other gambling hotspots but it appears there has even been (ironically) some official encouragement of stock market investment.  Bloomberg has reported the opening in March of four million new trading accounts at the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, many by individuals who are financially inexperienced if not downright illiterate. State Street estimates that 80% of Chinese investors trade at least one a month vs. 50% in the US. Much of the trading is funded through margin accounts and debit balances are believed to have risen already to the equivalent of 1% of GDP. Having to deal with a stock market crash may be a challenge too far for the PBoC and last week it warned banks to check that client margin accounts are adequately funded. Over the weekend it has cut the commercial banks' reserve ratio requirement by a further 1%, which will create yet more credit, and in Washington Governor Zhou has resorted to bravado with talk of further easing. A correction in China equities is overdue and there could well be one starting this week. 

US: merely safe?

No major data is due next week but last week saw the latest in a series of weak indicators that stretches back to December. Retail Sales at 1.3% (year on year) and Industrial Production at 2% go some way to confirming the Atlanta Fed's final Nowcast of Q1 GDP at a mere 0.2% (annualised). Only some of this softness can be attributed to bad weather as the South and West experienced normal or above temperatures. Yet again the finger points to slowing global demand as both a contributory cause and effect, which also helps to explain why so many US equities appear to be running out of steam. This in turn gives the FOMC an excuse to delay for longer the first rate hikes and the most recent price movements suggest that the bond and FX markets believe it will delay at least until September, thereby sending yield hunters elsewhere. Other factors reducing demand for US assets include fewer dollars in the hands of oil producers and Chinese exporters. Accordingly, the main buyers going forward could well be domestic and foreign investors preferring safety to the excitement in Europe and Asia

Europe: Germany going well, shame about Greece

The latest episode in Mario Draghi's heroic progress was rudely interrupted by a young protestor casting confetti, with a wonderfully symbolic abandon to match the ECB's QE programme but he was clearly in no mood for false modesty. Coming up this week is a string of EZ surveys that he may claim show all his policies are working but rather awkwardly will highlight that Germany is the chief beneficiary. (They include the ZEW on Economic Sentiment, IFO on Business Climate, Gfk Consumer Confidence and Markit flash PMIs.) EZ Consumer Confidence, French PMI surveys and Italian Retail Sales are less like to sparkle but should provide evidence that the economy is bottoming out, which would be good news all round.

However, much worse for Mr Draghi than a rude interruption at a press conference is Grexit's looming large again, which is forcing him to deny simultaneously both that it will happen and, even if it did, that there would be no contagion. Even he may struggle to get away with that verbal conjuring!  To use a boxing metaphor the ECB is in the 'red corner' along with the IMF, EU Commission, France, Italy, the US and even the UK supporting Greece's wish to obtain new concessions and stay in the EZ. In the 'blue corner' are Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Slovakia, Estonia and, piquantly, Spain and Portugal who may well also want Greece to stay in the EZ but are unwilling to change the existing bail-out agreements. The following bullet points represent my latest thoughts:

• Greece really is on the point of running out of money with €1.7bn due to be paid out on public sector pay and pensions at the end of April and yet another €0.2bn to IMF on May 1^st . Meanwhile not all taxes are being collected.
• The government is dysfunctional with inexperienced and undisciplined ministers engaged in factional in-fighting.
• Prime Minister Tsipras is unable and/or unwilling to compromise on four key areas: the labour market, pensions, VAT and privatisation.
• Very little negotiating is taking place with the Brussels Group (formerly known as the troika), which is undermining the Red Corner supporters. Meanwhile the Blue Corner is infuriated by Mr Varoufakis's global grandstanding
• Nobody in Greece (or outside for that matter) seems to be facing up to the reality that a lot more than the delayed final bail-out tranche €7.2bn will be needed as soon as August.
• A deal cannot be agreed in time for Friday's meeting in Riga of the Eurogroup finance ministers.
• A fudge also seems unlikely to be agreed by May 12^th when a further €0.74bn repayment is due to the IMF, which means Greece will default and Grexit would happen later in the month.
• Even if a fudge is agreed by May 12^th and the IMF is paid, Greece will not receive any bail-out money and Grexit would then be likely to occur in June unless Mr Tsipras capitulates
• The only way Grexit can be avoided is if Mr Tsipras obtains a new mandate to accept the Eurogroup's terms through a new election or a referendum.

Understandably, Greek sovereign bonds are again under severe pressure but last week also saw some increases in yields on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds. European equity markets also had a touch of collywobbles, despite Mr Draghi's irritated dismal of any suggestions that the QE might not continue until September 2016 or beyond. Contagion? What contagion? Meanwhile, German bonds sail on serenely and the average yield across the entire range of maturities is now negative. Why would investors buy something, which if they held on to it to maturity would leave them out of pocket? Surely, only because they expect to get more either by selling before maturity and/ or ending up with a pile of new DMarks? That sounds like speculation to me!

UK: only connect?

The politics of the General Election is becoming more gripping than ever and an all-nighter in front of the TV seems inevitable. The betting at Betfair still points to the Tories winning the most seats but the odds now favour Mr Miliband's becoming Prime Minister. Moreover, it is still far from clear how much, if at all, this uncertainty is affecting UK equities, gilts and the pound. Labour's proposed 'market interventions' seem modest enough and the Tories pledge to hold a referendum on EU membership seems unlikely to result in Brexit, even if they could get a vote through Parliament to hold it.

Meanwhile, the good economic news keeps coming without seeming to boost the Tory cause. Coming up this week are the latest MPC minutes, which should reveal a discussion on cutting Base Rates to zero but probably no vote on the matter. Another bumper month for Retail Sales in March can be expected, not least because they cover the Easter period this year while  the corresponding figures for 2014 did not. The Coalition parties should have one final achievement to celebrate together with public sector borrowing in the financial year 2014-5 ending up at around £87-88bn, which would be below both the OBR forecast of £90.2 billion and the total for 2013-4 of £98.5bn. It is indeed something to celebrate but, as the impartial Institute of Fiscal Studies will no doubt point out, it rather clashes with the claims in the party manifestos. Markets, economists, politicians and voters appear to be living in parallel universes.